Markets worth a second look
Each entry below is a market our heuristic flagged for further reading. The rationale describes why it caught our eye. None of this is a recommendation to trade. Read carefully and form your own view. New here? How to tell if a market looks mispriced walks through the free checks behind these flags.
Snapshot Jul 31, 2026 · 143 signals
What changed since the last snapshot
Markets whose YES price moved the most since the previous snapshot window. These are observations of how the crowd repriced each question, not a view on where any price should be.
Biggest moves this week
Largest YES-price change over the past week
trades at 69 cents on YES, up from 8 cents a week ago
trades at 75 cents on YES, up from 34 cents a week ago
trades at 12 cents on YES, down from 50 cents a week ago
trades at 63 cents on YES, up from 27 cents a week ago
trades at 3 cents on YES, down from 35 cents a week ago
Biggest moves today
Largest YES-price change over the past day
trades at 21 cents on YES, down from 91 cents a day ago
trades at 97 cents on YES, up from 46 cents a day ago
trades at 5 cents on YES, down from 41 cents a day ago
trades at 33 cents on YES, down from 60 cents a day ago
trades at 62 cents on YES, up from 37 cents a day ago
Markets flagged by our heuristic
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 9.9¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1360K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
YES 9.5¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2352K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
YES 9.5¢Market trades 10¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 109K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 43894K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 32524K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2628K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1894K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1718K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 993K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 660K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 578K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
YES 0.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 54K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
YES 0.6¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3237K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 749K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
YES 0.7¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 35K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3305K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 692K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
YES 0.8¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 180K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 8206K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
YES 90.8¢Market trades 91¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 216K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3042K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 31?
YES 99.1¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 28K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 0.9¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 896K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
YES 9.0¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1163K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
YES 9.0¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 764K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
YES 9.0¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 255K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
YES 91.0¢Market trades 91¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 274K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
YES 99.0¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 323K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 5279K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1025K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 241K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1403K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
YES 98.9¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 184K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 15282K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1449K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 141K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?
YES 1.1¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 53K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
YES 8.8¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 686K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
YES 1.2¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 499K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
YES 1.3¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 564K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 1.3¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 700K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 741K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 572K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2111K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series?
YES 1.4¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 429K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3014K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 1.5¢Market trades 1¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1327K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
YES 8.6¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 93K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
YES 98.5¢Market trades 99¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 160K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 23372K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 18203K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 8612K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2053K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 697K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
YES 8.5¢Market trades 9¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 596K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
YES 91.5¢Market trades 92¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 141K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
YES 98.5¢Market trades 98¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 2246K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 31?
YES 98.5¢Market trades 98¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 117K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
YES 1.6¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3629K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 1.7¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 881K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
YES 1.7¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 202K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?
YES 1.7¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 236K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
YES 1.8¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1858K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
YES 1.8¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 998K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
YES 1.9¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1884K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 31?
YES 2.0¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 154K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
YES 8.0¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1129K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
YES 2.1¢Market trades 2¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 462K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
YES 92.2¢Market trades 92¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 376K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
YES 97.8¢Market trades 98¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 1106K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
YES 7.5¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3156K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
YES 2.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 648K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
YES 7.5¢Market trades 8¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 339K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
YES 97.5¢Market trades 97¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 930K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?
YES 2.6¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1032K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?
YES 97.4¢Market trades 97¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 31K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?
YES 2.6¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 145K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?
YES 2.8¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 73K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
YES 92.8¢Market trades 93¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 245K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 17062K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2447K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 2.9¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 710K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
YES 6.9¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 40K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 3.1¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 9256K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
YES 6.8¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1126K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
YES 3.4¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3127K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 3.4¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 646K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
YES 3.4¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 429K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
YES 3.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 17375K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YES 3.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1158K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 3.5¢Market trades 3¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 579K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
YES 6.5¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 36379K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
YES 6.5¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 4369K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
YES 6.5¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2284K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
YES 6.5¢Market trades 7¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 847K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
YES 3.6¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 753K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4.0¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2298K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 4.0¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 2236K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
YES 6.0¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 415K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
YES 6.0¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 48K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 4.0¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 39265K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YES 4.2¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1116K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YES 4.2¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 898K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
YES 5.9¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 287K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
YES 4.3¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 206K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
YES 4.4¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 453K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
YES 4.4¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 98K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
YES 95.6¢Market trades 96¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 82K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 4.5¢Market trades 4¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 1682K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
YES 4.5¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 763K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
YES 95.5¢Market trades 96¢ on YES (deeply for the outcome) on 672K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YES 5.5¢Market trades 6¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 593K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
YES 4.5¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 737K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
YES 4.9¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 101K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
YES 5.1¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 95K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
YES 5.1¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 41K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
YES 5.1¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 3100K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
YES 66.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
YES 54.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YES 75.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (5× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
YES 28.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
YES 79.4¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 44.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 50.3¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
YES 34.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
YES 28.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
YES 42.8¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 29.3¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YES 23.2¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
YES 21.2¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
YES 99.8¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
YES 69.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
YES 62.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× yes, 1× no). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YES 84.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× no, 1× yes). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× dorado gaming). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Los Cabos Open: Coleman Wong vs Jenson Brooksby
YES 100.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× coleman wong, 1× jenson brooksby). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
YES 63.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (4× t1, 3× gen.g). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
YES 5.0¢Market trades 5¢ on YES (deeply against the outcome) on 84K in lifetime volume. Tail-priced markets with active volume are worth a second look against the underlying question and any new information.
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
YES 58.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× kiwoom drx). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)
YES 100.0¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× las vegas aces, 1× new york liberty). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina
YES 65.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (2× denis shapovalov, 2× dalibor svrcina). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Vancouver: Hayato Matsuoka vs J.J. Wolf
YES 0.1¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× j.j. wolf). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
YES 47.5¢Multiple wallets we track hold visible positions in this market (3× under). Concentrated tracked-wallet interest can be worth examining when forming a view, though it is not predictive.