aenews2
0x44c1…ebc1View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$289.6K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
9
Open P&L (est.)
$-105.1K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$-153.5K
Hit rate (resolved)
10%
Resolved positions
82
Longshot exposure
82%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes$73.5K$3.9K
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?No$43.0K$13.5K
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes$22.2K$3.2K
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?No$20.1K$10
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?No$20.0K$10
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 290m and 300m?No$20.0K$10
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?No$20.0K$50
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No$17.0K$2.6K
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?No$10.0K$25
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?No$6.6K$475
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Yes$5.3K$-1.2K
- Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?No$4.9K$109
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes$3.8K$-2.5K
- Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes$3.4K$-893
- Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Yes$3.1K$-250
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes$3.0K$-2.0K
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes$2.8K$-4.1K
- Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes$2.4K$159
- Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Yes$2.3K$32
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes$1.7K$56
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes$1.7K$-29
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?No$1.4K$-20
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?No$1.3K$-4.3K
- Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes$1.2K$582
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes$1.2K$-1.3K
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes$1.1K$-1.4K
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes$1.1K$-6.0K
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?No$1.0K$51
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes$892$-881
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes$795$-1.2K
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes$790$77
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes$781$-644
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes$716$-615
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes$708$83
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes$702$453
- Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Yes$540$50
- Will there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?Yes$402$12
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes$362$-209
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Yes$354$78
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes$348$-651
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes$315$-79
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes$299$21
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes$289$-277
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Yes$248$-2.2K
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes$236$-28
- Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No$235$-250
- Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes$225$-109
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes$206$-482
- Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Yes$196$-201
- Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?No$180$39
- Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?Yes$171$16
- Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No$148$-34
- Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes$147$-87
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?Yes$134$-87
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?No$132$7
- X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes$132$-98
- Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes$130$-43
- Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes$127$68
- Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Yes$120$-59
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes$118$-65
- Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?Yes$118$0
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes$108$-68
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?Yes$103$72
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Yes$96$-51
- Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No$91$-28
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes$87$-89
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes$84$-82
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes$71$-43
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$57$-24
- Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Yes$50$-18
- Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Yes$48$36
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes$46$-61
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Yes$45$-69.5K
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes$42$1
- Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Yes$40$-4
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?Yes$40$-52
- NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Yes$35$-7
- Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?Yes$25$3
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Yes$21$13
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes$21$-24.3K
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?No$20$4
- Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No$15$-1
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Yes$14$-11
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?Yes$13$-33
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No$13$-223
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Yes$13$-27
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes$13$-3
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes$7$1
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?No$6$-4.0K
- Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?Yes$6$-11
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes$5$-11
- Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes$3$1
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No$3$0
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes$3$-3
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes$2$1
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Yes$2$-13
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Yes$2$-2
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes$1$-1
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No$0$-1
- Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Yes$0$-1
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 4h agoBought Yes$69.4K@ 18.5¢
- 5h agoBought No$20.0K@ 99.9¢
- 5h agoBought No$20.0K@ 99.9¢
- 5h agoBought No$20.1K@ 99.9¢
- 5h agoBought No$19.9K@ 99.7¢
- 5h agoBought No$10.0K@ 99.1¢
- 20h agoBought No$23.8K@ 66.9¢
- 24h agoBought No$7.7K@ 77.0¢
- 32h agoBought No$5.6K@ 17.4¢
- 8d agoBought Yes$345@ 51.0¢
- 9d agoSold No$2.5K@ 94.8¢
- 11d agoBought Yes$222@ 63.5¢
- 11d agoBought Yes$147@ 43.0¢
- 13d agoBought Yes$438@ 95.1¢
- 13d agoBought No$11.9K@ 64.7¢
- 13d agoBought No$3.0K@ 70.0¢
- 14d agoBought No$854@ 99.2¢
- 14d agoBought No$1.9K@ 99.3¢
- 14d agoBought No$49.8K@ 99.9¢
- 14d agoBought No$3.1K@ 99.9¢
- 16d agoBought Yes$6.1K@ 99.2¢
- 16d agoBought No$298@ 79.0¢
- 17d agoBought Yes$214@ 96.5¢
- 17d agoBought Yes$1.5K@ 12.7¢
- 23d agoSold Yes$249@ 32.0¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.