Sparse-Cookie
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No$204.4K$79.4K
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No$117.7K$51.2K
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$45.6K$-79.4K
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes$15.3K$-51.2K
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes$14.3K$1.8K
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes$10.3K$1.3K
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Yes$7.6K$2.0K
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?No$7.1K$217
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$6.6K$-430
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes$4.9K$2.3K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$3.6K$4
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes$3.1K$-810
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$3.1K$166
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No$2.8K$102
- Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes$2.6K$66
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No$2.6K$793
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?No$2.5K$107
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes$2.3K$698
- Anthropic IPO before 2027?No$2.2K$646
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No$1.9K$-9
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Yes$1.9K$887
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.8K$705
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes$1.8K$-1.7K
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No$1.6K$384
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes$1.6K$195
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.6K$-682
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes$1.5K$69
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$1.5K$-253
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes$1.4K$1.4K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.4K$16
- Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?No$1.3K$30
- Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes$1.3K$176
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?No$1.3K$611
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No$1.3K$-0
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes$1.3K$1.1K
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes$1.2K$567
- Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes$1.2K$1.1K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$1.1K$-59
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Yes$1.1K$690
- Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Yes$1.1K$1.0K
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes$1.0K$-105
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?No$1,000$8
- Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?No$999$41
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes$997$887
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes$956$925
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Yes$950$474
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No$925$55
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes$913$296
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes$909$173
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No$899$-41
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$895$770
- Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No$887$-347
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No$885$373
- Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?No$878$12
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes$872$385
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?Yes$860$395
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in September?No$849$66
- Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?Yes$848$786
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No$834$65
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Yes$831$534
- Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?No$829$15
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No$829$34
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?No$813$20
- Will someone else give the next White House press briefing?Yes$809$797
- Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?Yes$793$725
- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Yes$779$690
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?No$765$-60
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?No$762$31
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No$759$264
- Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?Yes$744$682
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No$744$297
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?No$731$28
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No$726$-744
- Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes$719$9
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No$706$148
- Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes$691$258
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes$690$662
- Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?No$688$0
- Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?Yes$684$662
- Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Yes$680$8
- Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes$679$563
- Will Elin Norén be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Dalarna?Yes$678$655
- Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?Yes$677$656
- Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?Yes$673$556
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes$673$651
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?Yes$669$199
- Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Yes$668$635
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes$665$5
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes$665$649
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes$662$636
- Will Anders Öberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Norrbotten?Yes$661$639
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Yes$658$640
- Will Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?Yes$657$639
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No$648$41
- Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?Yes$646$533
- Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?Yes$644$621
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?No$623$4
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$623$483
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes$616$-281
- Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?Yes$616$577
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 37d agoBought Yes$200@ 50.0¢
- 37d agoSold Yes$315@ 78.8¢
- 37d agoBought Yes$150@ 94.2¢
- 38d agoBought Yes$374@ 75.0¢
- 38d agoBought Yes$632@ 79.0¢
- 38d agoSold Yes$291@ 72.6¢
- 38d agoSold Yes$534@ 92.0¢
- 38d agoBought No$169@ 99.7¢
- 38d agoBought Yes$150@ 75.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$149@ 92.2¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoBought No$193@ 96.5¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoSold Yes$128@ 64.0¢
- 39d agoBought Yes$138@ 74.9¢
- 40d agoBought No$191@ 99.7¢
- 40d agoBought No$190@ 99.1¢
- 40d agoSold Yes$132@ 66.0¢
- 40d agoBought Yes$151@ 94.8¢
- 40d agoBought No$156@ 97.0¢
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Sparse-Cookie. The headline figures are $169 of traded volume, 15 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $4.9K. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $169 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $4.9K is positive and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 80% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 15 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $169 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $4.9K is a naive estimate derived from public data and is positive. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $4.9K is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 15 visible positions and the $169 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $169 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $4.9K figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently positive. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 15 visible positions and the $169 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.