ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab…6418View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$110.5K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
0
Open P&L (est.)
$153.5K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$-21.3K
Hit rate (resolved)
81%
Resolved positions
21
Longshot exposure
40%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$517.4K$141.8K
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No$190.6K$65.6K
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No$60.2K$300
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$59.4K$-65.6K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?No$42.8K$179
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No$31.1K$1.2K
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No$26.4K$9.2K
- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No$23.5K$3.1K
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No$23.3K$-251
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?No$22.7K$1.3K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?No$21.7K$78
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?No$18.9K$858
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No$18.7K$832
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No$18.6K$2.5K
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No$13.0K$648
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No$12.7K$383
- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes$12.7K$1.1K
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Yes$11.2K$413
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No$10.7K$312
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?No$10.4K$-36
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?No$10.0K$270
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?No$9.6K$25
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$9.3K$-4.8K
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?No$8.2K$310
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?No$8.1K$793
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Yes$8.0K$183
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No$7.9K$876
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes$7.5K$-675
- Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get at least 40 million views on day 1?No$7.2K$12
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No$6.9K$-3.0K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?No$6.7K$8
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No$6.5K$-49
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$6.2K$365
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$5.9K$-349
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No$5.7K$0
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No$5.5K$179
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Yes$5.0K$47
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No$4.9K$137
- Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?No$4.8K$1.1K
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?No$4.8K$13
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes$4.4K$67
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic$4.4K$3
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No$4.4K$23
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$4.4K$322
- Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No$4.2K$95
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?No$4.1K$10
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?No$4.0K$75
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No$3.9K$12
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes$3.8K$-1.2K
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?No$3.7K$70
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No$3.6K$6
- Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes$3.5K$-1.9K
- Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No$3.5K$18
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?No$3.5K$339
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes$3.4K$0
- SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No$3.4K$-34
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?No$3.3K$69
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No$3.3K$-1.3K
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$3.2K$-51
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Yes$3.2K$-120
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No$3.2K$-1.0K
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?Yes$3.1K$-21
- Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?No$3.0K$31
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$2.9K$-519
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes$2.7K$-13
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.4K$-3
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?No$2.3K$11
- Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?No$2.2K$-832
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes$2.2K$38
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?No$2.1K$146
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$54
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?No$2.1K$87
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$2.1K$178
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No$2.1K$139
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?No$1.9K$10
- Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No$1.8K$-296
- FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?No$1.8K$-29
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No$1.8K$126
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes$1.8K$12
- Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No$1.7K$6
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?No$1.7K$9
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No$1.7K$301
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Yes$1.6K$192
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?No$1.6K$-30
- Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?No$1.6K$46
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No$1.5K$10
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes$1.5K$29
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes$1.5K$-10
- Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes$1.5K$-1
- Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?No$1.4K$78
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes$1.4K$-963
- Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?No$1.3K$24
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No$1.3K$82
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No$1.3K$66
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No$1.3K$-27
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Yes$1.3K$-4
- Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Yes$1.2K$-152
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes$1.1K$0
- Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?No$1.1K$48
- Will Barrett Pfeiffer come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?No$1.0K$-102
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 10d agoBought No$511@ 98.7¢
- 21d agoBought Yes$3.6K@ 36.0¢
- 21d agoBought Yes$8.4K@ 35.0¢
- 22d agoSold No$6.4K@ 99.6¢
- 24d agoSold No$60.0K@ 80.7¢
- 24d agoBought No$132@ 51.0¢
- 26d agoSold No$432@ 87.7¢
- 33d agoSold No$4.0K@ 73.5¢
- 33d agoSold No$217@ 88.0¢
- 33d agoSold Yes$155@ 86.0¢
- 33d agoBought No$2.1K@ 94.0¢
- 33d agoBought No$180@ 94.5¢
- 33d agoBought No$213@ 93.7¢
- 33d agoBought No$356@ 97.7¢
- 33d agoBought No$203@ 94.5¢
- 33d agoBought No$277@ 94.1¢
- 33d agoBought No$342@ 96.4¢
- 33d agoBought No$261@ 94.5¢
- 33d agoBought No$544@ 95.7¢
- 33d agoBought No$715@ 95.8¢
- 33d agoBought No$383@ 94.6¢
- 35d agoBought No$647@ 94.5¢
- 35d agoBought No$201@ 95.0¢
- 35d agoBought No$259@ 95.6¢
- 35d agoBought No$394@ 93.3¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.