cigarettes
0xd218…b5c9View on Polymarket ↗
Total volume
$300.9K
Open positions
100
Trades (7d, mirrored)
8
Open P&L (est.)
$18.6K
Volume reflects the trades we have mirrored for this wallet. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Realized profit (Polymarket-reported)
Realized P&L (Polymarket)
$67.0K
Hit rate (resolved)
91%
Resolved positions
232
Longshot exposure
59%
Realized P&L is Polymarket's own reported figure, summed across the positions currently visible for this wallet. It is partial: it excludes fully closed-out and redeemed history and any activity outside the public feed. Hit rate is the share of resolved visible positions that finished in the money. Longshot exposure is the share of this wallet's mirrored trade notional entered at extreme prices, at or below 15 cents or at or above 85 cents, a pattern the favorite-longshot literature links to weaker outcomes. Observation of public data, not advice.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
Market
Outcome
Value
Open P&L (est.)
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$21.6K$12.5K
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No$5.1K$527
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No$3.4K$317
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$2.3K$2.0K
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes$2.1K$332
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No$1.8K$-341
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes$1.8K$-143
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$1.7K$801
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No$1.0K$48
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$878$37
- Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Rocket Classic?No$746$54
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$709$666
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes$652$322
- Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes$542$518
- Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?No$533$16
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYes$473$-57
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes$401$357
- Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes$397$344
- Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?No$380$9
- Will The Weeknd be the top artist for 2026?No$358$0
- Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No$355$168
- Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?No$343$0
- Will July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?No$340$13
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No$337$-1
- Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?No$334$-10
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?No$328$6
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?No$327$-41
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?No$324$0
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?No$323$58
- Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?No$322$7
- KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG TwinsHanwha Eagles$321$-110
- Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?No$316$27
- Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?No$315$4
- Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?No$314$6
- Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No$312$-0
- Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?No$310$2
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?No$305$-19
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes$295$-341
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?No$295$-7
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?No$293$19
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?No$286$114
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 31?No$286$94
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 31?No$286$30
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$283$10
- Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 92%-94%?No$279$33
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No$277$4
- Will the Republican Party win the MA-05 House seat?No$276$3
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?No$273$1
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?No$272$5
- Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?No$268$4
- Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain?No$259$0
- Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?No$258$28
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$257$-38
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No$254$3
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No$252$1
- Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?No$250$8
- Will Beyoncé be the top artist for 2026?No$249$-0
- Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds by July 31, 2026?No$249$2
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No$248$-0
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?No$247$2
- Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?No$245$-0
- Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 90%-92%?No$243$55
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 31?No$243$2
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?No$241$24
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$241$-0
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$241$-0
- Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$241$-0
- Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$240$0
- Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$240$-0
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No$240$19
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$240$-1
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$240$-1
- Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$238$-2
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$238$-1
- Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$238$-3
- Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?No$233$7
- Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?No$232$6
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$232$9
- Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 94%+?No$231$-6
- Will Haley Stevens win Kent County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No$230$14
- Will Chappell Roan be the top artist for 2026?No$230$0
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?No$229$33
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?No$228$8
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after August 2026 meeting?No$226$-0
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?No$225$17
- Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?No$223$18
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No$223$-44
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$223$2
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No$220$8
- Will Vinicius Junior join Al-Hilal?No$219$-0
- Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?No$218$4
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$216$-1
- Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No$215$-37
- Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Rocket Classic?No$211$8
- Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 88%-90%?No$202$0
- Will the Democratic Party win the GA-07 House seat?No$202$-2
- Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No$202$1
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No$198$-0
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No$195$1
- Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?No$192$90
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
When
Market
Action
Size · Price
- 7d agoBought No$189@ 99.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$190@ 99.6¢
- 7d agoBought No$219@ 99.6¢
- 7d agoBought No$167@ 80.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$206@ 99.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$219@ 99.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$206@ 99.6¢
- 7d agoBought No$177@ 80.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$198@ 99.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$198@ 99.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$198@ 99.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$150@ 75.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$178@ 89.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$538@ 99.7¢
- 7d agoBought No$101@ 96.6¢
- 7d agoBought No$105@ 99.6¢
- 7d agoBought No$103@ 98.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$107@ 89.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$109@ 91.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$107@ 89.0¢
- 7d agoBought No$118@ 98.4¢
- 7d agoBought No$119@ 99.5¢
- 8d agoBought Brendson Ribeiro$648@ 12.0¢
- 8d agoBought Yes$379@ 86.0¢
- 9d agoBought No$710@ 71.0¢
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.