Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse
Volume reflects the latest curated snapshot. Open P&L is an estimate of the cash profit-and-loss across this wallet's currently visible open positions only, read live from public data. It is not realised profit and excludes closed positions, fees, and any activity outside the public feed.
Current open positions
Estimated open profit-and-loss per position, read live from public data. An estimate, not realised profit.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No$134$-32
- Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?No$101$-17
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?No$72$-24
- Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?No$71$-17
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?Yes$67$-36
- Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?No$65$-75
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No$63$-19
- Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?No$55$-59
- Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?No$53$-9
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?Yes$53$-45
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Yes$51$-9
- Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?Yes$50$-17
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?No$48$-59
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Yes$44$-3
- Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?No$40$-27
- Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?Yes$40$-26
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?No$36$-118
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?No$35$-7
- Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?No$33$-7
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?Yes$33$-11
- Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?Yes$30$-22
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No$30$-90
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?No$30$-4
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?Yes$29$-17
- Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Yes$29$-10
- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?No$27$-30
- Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Yes$26$-126
- Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?Yes$25$-27
- Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election?No$23$-25
- Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Yes$22$-11
- Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?Yes$21$-39
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No$21$-29
- Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No$20$-3
- Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026?No$19$-57
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Yes$19$-21
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?Yes$19$-18
- Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?Yes$18$-26
- Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title?Yes$18$-22
- Will Esteban "Steve" Guerra win the 2026 Cameron County Judge election?No$18$-20
- Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?No$18$-3
- Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?No$17$-6
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes$16$-12
- Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?Yes$14$-14
- Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?No$13$-15
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Yes$13$-60
- Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?No$12$-26
- Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?No$11$-6
- Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes$11$-17
- Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?No$9$-5
- Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes$8$-13
- Will Harris English finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Rocket Classic?Yes$8$-30
- Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes$7$-10
- Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?Yes$7$-63
- Will Fred Clark be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?No$7$-30
- Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election?No$7$-36
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes$6$-6
- Will the Boston Red Sox have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season?No$6$-20
- Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Yes$5$-20
- Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No$5$-9
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?Yes$5$-7
- Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?Yes$4$-17
- Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title?Yes$4$-12
- Will Mark Lynch place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes$4$-21
- Will the Dolphins win the season series against the Bills during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes$4$-9
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes$4$-29
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Yes$3$-19
- Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?No$3$-21
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?Yes$3$-8
- Will Jill Tokuda be the HI-02 Democratic nominee?No$3$-11
- Will Kanye West perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Yes$3$-48
- Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?No$2$-8
- Will 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?Yes$2$-11
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Yes$2$-67
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No$2$-12
- Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?No$2$-24
- Will Antonio Zanardi Landi be the next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?Yes$1$-11
- Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?Yes$1$-2
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Seahawks during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Yes$1$-2
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in July?Yes$0$-5
- Will Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Yes$0$-4
- Will London have between 70-80mm of precipitation in July?Yes$0$-4
- Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Yes$0$-10
- Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Yes$0$-22
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?No$0$-54
Recent trades observed
The most recent trades we have mirrored for this wallet from public on-chain data, newest first.
- 11h agoSold No$130@ 65.1¢
- 12h agoSold Yes$106@ 81.0¢
- 12h agoSold No$158@ 79.0¢
- 21h agoSold Yes$126@ 63.0¢
- 24h agoSold No$141@ 88.0¢
- 30h agoSold No$176@ 88.0¢
- 7d agoSold Yes$142@ 71.0¢
- 11d agoSold No$119@ 85.0¢
- 11d agoSold No$168@ 84.0¢
How to read this page
This page describes the public Polymarket activity for the wallet Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse. The headline figures are $197 of traded volume, 2 currently visible open positions, and a naive realized profit-and-loss estimate of $-108. Each figure is read straight from public on-chain and public-API records that anyone could query.
Traded volume of $197 is light and is simply a measure of how much activity the address has moved through the platform. It does not imply skill or endorsement. The realized figure of $-108 is negative and is a naive estimate from the public data, with a 0% win rate across resolved positions. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes.
The open-positions table lists the 2 markets where this wallet currently holds a visible position, with the side, size, and current mark for each. Every row links through to that market's own page, where the same price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are activity to observe, not a model to follow.
- Read traded volume as activity, not skill. Take the $197 of traded volume as a measure of how much the wallet has moved through Polymarket. A high figure means the address has been active at scale; it does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results.
- Treat the profit-and-loss figure as a naive estimate. The realized figure of $-108 is a naive estimate derived from public data and is negative. It is described where the public records expose it and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
- Open the positions for context. Use the positions table to see which markets the wallet currently sits in. Each row links to that market's page, where the price reads as the market's implied probability. The positions are public activity to observe.
- Keep it as observation. Read the figures as a description of what a public address has done, and form your own view. Nothing on this page directs an action or follows a wallet.
How these figures are derived
Volume, the open-position count, and the realized profit-and-loss estimate are read from Polymarket's public data API and the public chain. We identify the wallet only by its public address and any display name Polymarket itself has already published, and we do not tie an address to a real-world person.
The realized figure of $-108 is a deliberately naive estimate, not an audited result, and the win rate is shown only where the public data exposes it. The page renders from a periodic snapshot, so the 2 visible positions and the $197 of volume are as of the most recent pull and may already differ from the live platform.
For the full detail on sources and limits, see the methodology page.
Frequently asked questions
What does the $197 traded volume for this wallet mean?
It is a measure of how much activity this public Polymarket address has moved through the platform, read from public records. A light figure means the wallet has been active at scale. It does not imply skill, endorsement, or any judgment about future results, and it is shown as an observation rather than guidance.
How is the realized profit-and-loss figure calculated?
The $-108 figure is a naive realized estimate derived from the wallet's public trade and position data, currently negative. It is not an audited result and carries no guarantee of accuracy. Past activity says nothing about future outcomes, and the figure is reported only to describe what the public data shows.
How current are the positions shown here?
They are as of the latest snapshot of Polymarket's public data, not the current second. The 2 visible positions and the $197 of traded volume can already differ from the live platform, since activity on Polymarket moves continuously.
Can I follow or copy this wallet from Cent Signals?
No. Cent Signals is editorial and read-only. There is no copy-trade feature, order routing, wallet connection, or fund custody here. The wallet's activity is shown as public on-chain data to observe, and nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Compiled by the Cent Signals editorial desk. Reviewed June 3, 2026.
Wallet activity is sourced from publicly available on-chain data and may be incomplete or stale. Past trades are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to take any position.